The long-term pattern of adult mortality and the highest attained age

Recent new data on old age mortality point to a particular model for the wa y in which the probability of dying increases with age. The model is found to fit not only modern data but also some widely spaced historical data for the 19th and 17th centuries, and even some estimates for the early mediaev al period. The results show a pattern which calls for explanation. The mode l can also be used to predict a probability distribution for the highest ag e which will be attained in given circumstances. The results are relevant t o the current debate about whether there is a fixed upper limit to the leng th of human life.