The time distribution of the historical eruptions of Vesuvius allows the fo
recasting of the activity of the volcano for the next millennium according
to three independent models. The next event with volcanic explosivity index
(VEI) = 4 is likely to occur during the next few decades followed by a dec
reasing number of smaller eruptions in the successive few centuries and by
a very long period of quiescence up to the beginning of the following fourt
h millennium when the next Plinian event (VEI = 5) might occur. (C) 1999 El
sevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.