Comparison of risk estimates for selected diseases and causes of death

Background. Lifetime risk estimates of disease are limited by long-term dat a extrapolations and are less relevant to individuals who have already live d a period of time without the disease, but are approaching the age at whic h the disease risk becomes common. In contrast, short-term age-conditional risk estimates, such as the risk of developing a disease in the next 10 yea rs among those alive and free of the disease at a given age, are less restr icted by long-term extrapolation of current rates and can present patients with risk information tailored to their age. This study focuses on short-te rm age-conditional risk estimates for a broad set of important chronic dise ases and nondisease causes of death among white and black men and women. Methods. The Feuer et al. (1993, Journal of the National Cancer Institute) [15] method was applied to data from a variety of sources to obtain risk es timates for select cancers, myocardial infarction, diabetes mellitus, multi ple sclerosis, Alzheimer's, and death from motor vehicle accidents, homicid e or legal intervention, and suicide. Results. Acute deaths from suicide, homicide or legal intervention, and fat al motor vehicle accidents dominate the risk picture for persons in their 2 0s, with only diabetes mellitus and end-stage renal disease therapy (for bl acks only) having similar levels of risk in this age range. Late in life, c ancer, acute myocardial infarction, Alzheimer's, and stroke become most com mon. The chronic diseases affecting the population later in life present th e most likely diseases someone will face. Several interesting differences i n disease and death risks were derived and reported among age specific race and gender subgroups of the population. Conclusion, Presentation of risk estimates for a broad set of chronic disea ses and nondisease causes of death within short-term age ranges among popul ation subgroups provides tailored information that may lead to better educa ted prevention, screening, and control behaviors and more efficient allocat ion of health resources. (C) 1999 American Health Foundation and Academic P ress.