The objective of this study was to look for the occurrence of catastrophic
antiphospholipid syndromes (APS) and to try to detect discriminating factor
s for predicting a worse prognosis, related to Lupus anticoagulant (LA) and
antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL), in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) w
ith main renal involvement. Regression, recursive partition and logistic re
gression analyses were applied to our 80 SLE patients prospectively followe
d up since 1980. Immunologic and other laboratory parameters including beta
(2)-glycoprotein 1 dependence, resistance to activated protein C caused by
a substitution on the coagulation factor V gene, induction of monocyte proc
oagulant activity.
Regression studies demonstrated an overall worse prognosis in term of both
thrombosis and death for the group of LA/aPL positive patients (33/80). How
ever, recursive partition analysis was able to isolate a small high risk-su
bgroup (8/33) characterized by persistent LA/aPL antibodies positive result
, widespread signs of noninflammatory vasculopathy (skin, brain, kidney) an
d renal pathology mimicking that of thrombotic microangiopathy or arteriolo
sclerosis, also in the absence of classic SLE-nephritis. Only in this subse
t, three catastropic APS were recorded, while, in traditional SLE nephritis
, even persistent LA/aPL positive results (sometimes after one previous thr
ombosis) did not seem to imply a particularly severe prognosis. All serolog
ic criteria employed are unable to identify high-risk patients.
We conclude that catastrophic APS is a rare event in renal SLE. Before more
predictive serologic markers become available, a simple algorithm, dealing
with clinical data and renal histologic patterns, may help physicians to i
dentify putatively high risk-LA/aPL antibodies in SLE patients with main re
nal involvement. This ominous subset does not belong to the group of classi
c SLE-nephritis.