Mark-recapture estimation of the local prevalence of problem drinking: An account of the results of a feasibility study

Mark-Recapture methods of prevalence estimation have been widely used to es timate the local prevalence of injecting drug use, based on the ethical ide ntification and modelling of overlaps between different partial agency popu lations of drug injectors. Re-application of this technique to estimation o f local prevalences of problem drinking has been frustrated by the fact tha t different local agencies are likely to have different operational definit ions of their target problem drinking populations. A feasibility study was conducted to explore the possibility of producing local problem drinking es timates by combining mark-recapture modelling with the use of AUDIT, a scre ening instrument. Unfortunately, low rates of screening by agencies produce d very few overlaps, but after modification to the research design it prove d possible to estimate the prevalence of problem drinking as 8.6 % of the l ocal population (95 % CI: 6.0 % to 12.8 %). It is recommended that this app roach to population estimation be used for problem drinking populations onl y where screening of agencies' clients/patients can be centrally directed a nd resourced and conducted by trained interview teams.