Detecting self-organisational change in economic processes exhibiting logistic growth

This paper offers an econometric methodology for the detection of self-orga nisational change (defined in terms of the presence of time irreversibility , structural change and fundamental uncertainty) in economic precesses that follow logistic diffusion growth paths in historical time. The approach we adopted is built upon recent developments in 'moving window' spectral meth ods which are applied to the scaled residuals generated by estimated logist ic diffusion models. We illustrate the use of such methods by examining the case of a financial instrument, namely, the Australian Building Society De posit, which experienced logistic growth in its market share until bank der egulation was enacted in the 1980s. We show that there is clear evidence th at self-organisational change is present over the historical period conside red.