Jg. Xia et Aq. Chen, An objective approach for making heavy rainfall forecasts based on numerical model output and the latest observation, WEATHER FOR, 14(1), 1999, pp. 49-52
An approach is presented that can make an objective heavy rainfall forecast
based on numerical model output and the latest observed rainfall without e
mploying historical data. The idea of the approach is that the mean rainfal
l intensity R at more than 600 grid points can be obtained from the past 6-
h rainfall observations at about 700 stations, the mean vertical velocity o
mega(RT) can be derived from R, and then the change of the omega(RT) is cal
culated; finally the rainfall forecast can be made by using the changed ome
ga(RT), the model-predicted u, upsilon, omega, and specific humidity q. The
verification shows that the forecast skill of the approach was better than
that of the model during the summer seasons of 1994 and 1995.