CHINA ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC GROWTH, FOREST PRODUCTS CONSUMPTION, AND WOOD REQUIREMENTS - 1949 TO 2010

The reforms begun in 1978 in China have had radical positive effects o n the country's economic growth. After reviewing past trends in forest product markets and resources, this paper presents forecasts of the i mpacts of this economic acceleration, in a country of 1.2 billion peop le, on the needs for forest products up to the year 2010. Future requi rements were predicted with equations linking the consumption of fores t products to income and population, and the roundwood requirements to products consumption. By the year 2010, the needs of China in wood eq uivalent will correspond roughly to the total current United States pr oduction, but consumption per capita will still be much lower. The cur rently planned timber supply will provide for about 3/4 of the total w ood requirements by the year 2010. The rest must be imported, or the d omestic supply must be increased by a mix of state planning and market incentives.