Assessing possible impacts of climate change on species important for forestry in Vietnam

The likely effects on two tree species of a range of scenarios of climatic and atmospheric change expected by the year 2050 are investigated using a c limatic mapping program, a simple simulation model and a process-based simu lation model. Styrax tonkinensis is a native species for which relatively l ittle information is available. Acacia mangium is an introduced species, wh ich is important for pulp production in several other countries, and for wh ich there is considerable information for growth and utilization. A climati c mapping program is used to show areas which may be suitable for these spe cies under present and predicted conditions. Two simulation models are used to investigate likely effects on productivity of the two species for a ran ge of climatic change scenarios for Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. The estimat ed changes in production are predicted to be relatively small, though uncer tainities associated with the simulations are quite high. However, the mode ls highlight areas where more data are needed and also suggest some key reg ions in Vietnam which would be worth monitoring to detect early signs of th e effects of climatic and atmospheric change.