Potential for advanced technology to improve air quality and human health in Shanghai

Air quality in most Asian cities is poor and getting worse. It will soon be come impossible to sustain population, economic, and industrial growth with out severe deterioration of the atmospheric environment. This paper address es the city of Shanghai, the air-quality problems it faces over the next 30 years, and the potential of advanced technology to alleviate these problem s. Population, energy consumption, and emission profiles are developed for the city at 0.1 degrees X 0.1 degrees resolution and extrapolated from 1990 to 2020 using sector-specific economic growth factors. Within the context of the RAINS-Asia model, eight technology scenarios are examined for their effects on ambient concentrations of sulfur dioxide and sulfate and their e mission control costs. Without new control measures, it is projected that t he number of people exposed to sulfur dioxide concentrations in excess of g uidelines established by the World Health Organization will rise from 650,0 00 in 1990 to more than 14 million in 2020. It is apparent that efforts to reduce emissions are likely to have significant health benefits, measured i n terms of the cost of reducing the number of people exposed to concentrati ons in excess of the guidelines ($10-50 annually per person protected). Foc using efforts on the control of new coal-fired power plants and industrial facilities has the greatest benefit. However, none of the scenarios examine d is alone capable of arresting the increases in emissions, concentrations, and population exposure. It is concluded that combinations of stringent sc enarios in several sectors will be necessary to stabilize the situation, at a potential cost of $500 million annually by the year 2020.