Prediction of early-onset asthma in genetically at-risk children

The W.T. Grant Foundation Asthma Risk Study was designed to prospectively e xamine children who were considered at a genetically increased risk for the development of asthma. The respective contributions of 11 potential risk f actors, both environmental and biological, were assessed in order to determ ine their relative roles in affecting the early onset of asthma. This is a report of an inception cohort of children born to asthmatic mothers and fol lowed for a 3-year period. All 150 families were recruited from the general community and living within 2 h of the National Jewish Center for Immunolo gy and Respiratory Medicine (Denver, CO). Mothers in the index risk sample had been previously diagnosed with asthma and were recruited during their p regnancy through physician referrals and media solicitation. The index samp le of 150 families was 92% Caucasian and predominantly middle class. The mean age of mothers was 29.3 years, and of fathers, 31.1 years. The mai n outcome was the determination of the early onset of asthma and its associ ation with quantified risk factors. By age 3 years, 14 of the 150 children had developed asthma. Frequent illness, IgE levels at age 6 months, parenti ng difficulties, and early eczema were significantly associated with the on set of asthma (P = 0.003, P = 0.006, P = 0.01, and P = 0.03, respectively). Only frequent illness, elevated serum IgE levels, and parenting difficulti es entered a predictive model where they were independently related to the development of asthma. Pediatr Pulmonol, 1999; 27:85-94, (C) 1999 Wiley-Lis s, Inc.