The onset of convection caused by surface tension (ST) during transient coo
ling of a thin layer of liquid is investigated. This study shows that it ca
n be predicted by a newly defined transient Marangoni number Ma, which inco
rporates the mode and rate of cooling, where a non-linear temperature profi
le develops continuously until instability sets in. The spatio-temporal dev
elopment of local hydrodynamic equilibrium can thus be traced to the point
of instability. The onset of convection for evaporative-cooling can be pred
icted from the maximum transient Ma whose values are the same as those prev
iously obtained by linear stability analysis for Blot number = 0. The criti
cal times and critical depths for stable heat conduction in liquids (before
convection) can thus be determined accurately. Agreement with observed val
ues from the literature is very good. The critical transient Marangoni numb
ers and the sizes of convection cells have also been predicted with reasona
ble accuracy. A theoretical limiting depth that demarcates between surface
tension and buoyancy controlled convection is proposed. There exists theore
tical and laboratory evidence to support that surface tension dominates in
fluid depth less than 5 mm and buoyancy predominates over 10 mm. (C) 1999 E
lsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.