The MISCAN-COLON simulation model for the evaluation of colorectal cancer screening

A general model for evaluation of colorectal cancer screening has been impl emented in the microsimulation program MISCAN-COLON. A large number of fict itious individual life histories are simulated in each of which several col orectal lesions can emerge. Next, screening for colorectal cancer is simula ted, which will change some of the life histories. The demographic characte ristics, the epidemiology and natural history of the disease, and the chara cteristics of screening are defined in the input. All kinds of assumptions on the natural history of colorectal cancer and screening and surveillance strategies can easily be incorporated in the model. MISCAN-COLON gives deta iled output of incidence, prevalence and mortality, and the results and eff ects of screening. It can be used to test hypotheses about the natural hist ory of colorectal cancer, such as the duration of progressive adenomas, and screening characteristics, such as sensitivity of tests, against empirical data. In decision making about screening, the model can be used for evalua tion of screening policies, and for choosing between competing policies by comparing their simulated incremental costs and effectiveness outcomes. (C) 1999 Academic Press.