A self-organization algorithm for real-time flood forecast

The group method of data handling (GMDH) algorithm presented by A. C. Ivakh nenko and colleagues is an heuristic self-organization method. It establish es the input-output relationship of a complex system using a multilayered p erception-type structure that is similar to a feed-forward multilayer neura l network. This study provides a step towards understanding and evaluating a role for GMDH in the investigation of the complex rainfall-runoff process es in a heterogeneous watershed in Taiwan. Two versions of the revised GMDH model are implemented: a stepwise regression procedure and a recursive for mula. Eleven typhoon events in the Shen-cei Creek watershed, Taiwan, are us ed to build the model and verify its usefulness. The prediction results of the revised GMDH models and the instantaneous unit hydrograph (IUH) model a re compared. Based on the criteria of forecasting precision and the rate an d time of peak error, a much better performance is obtained with the revise d GMDH models. Copyright (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.