Transnational terrorism in the post-Cold War era

The article uncovers evidence that the end of the Cold War has provided a d ividend in terms of reduced transnational terrorism. Significant short-run and long-run effects are quantified with time-series analysis to be concent rated in reduced bombings and hostage-taking incidents. Presumably, this di vidend is the result of less state-sponsorship of terrorism by the Commonwe alth of Independent States and other states, as well as the result of measu res taken by industrial states to thwart terrorist attacks. A dividend does not appear until the last three quarters of 1994, at which time moves were well under way to integrate Eastern Europe with the West, Moreover, prior to this period, significant efforts had been made among Western nations to augment cooperative efforts to curb terrorism and to bring terrorists to ju stice, Using data for 1970 through mid-1996, we also examine trends and cyc les in terrorist modes of attack. There is virtually no evidence of an upwa rd trend in transnational terrorism, contrary to media characterizations. A ll types of terrorist incidents display cycles whose duration lengthens wit h logistical complexity. Any change in these cycles in the post-Cold War er a is concentrated in the high-frequency or short-lived cycles.