Incorporating groups into rational choice explanations of turnout: An empirical test

This study examines the problem of voter turnout from a rational choice per spective. It reviews the "paradox of voting" and finds one model, which inc orporates the role of intermediary social groups and leaders, to be a promi sing solution. It tests the hypothesis that leader mobilization increases v oter turnout, using an ecological analysis of turnout in five Montreal ethn ic communities during three recent elections: the 1993 Canadian federal, th e 1994 Quebec provincial, and the 1994 Montreal municipal elections. Data o n mobilization are taken from semi-directed interviews with association lea ders in each community. The results compare predicted and actual rankings o f turnout for each community and election. The overall results are weak, in dicating that the model does a poor job of predicting voter turnout.