A spatial explicit allocation procedure for modelling the pattern of land use change based upon actual land use

Modelling of land use changes as a function of its biophysical and socio-ec onomic driving forces provides insights into the extent and location of lan d use changes and its effects. The CLUE modelling framework is a methodolog y to model near future land use changes based upon actual and past land use conditions. This paper describes how changes in land use are allocated in the model. A statistical analysis of the quantitative relationships between the actual land use distribution and (potential) driving forces or proxies of these forces underlies the allocation procedure. Based upon thus derive d multiple regression equations, areas with potential for increase or decre ase in cover percentage of a certain land use type are identified. Actual a llocation is modified by autohomous developments and competition between la nd use types. A multi-scale approach is followed to account for the scale d ependencies of driving factors of land use change. This approach provides a balance between bottom-up effects as result of local conditions and top-do wn effects as result of changes at national and regional scales. The modell ing approach is illustrated with examples of scenario simulations of land u se change in Ecuador. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.