A new method of predicting boundary layer transition is presented which mod
els the near wall velocity fluctuations induced in the laminar layer throug
h pressure fluctuations associated with the freestream turbulence. These ne
ar wall velocity fluctuations are then assumed to develop into turbulent sp
ots when their amplitude exceeds a threshold value. A relationship for the
near wall velocity frequency spectra is also established, which indicates a
n increasing bias towards low frequencies as the skin friction coefficient
for the boundary layer decreases, This result suggests that the dependence
of transition on the turbulent length scale is greatest at low freestream t
urbulence levels. This transition model is incorporated in a conventional b
oundary layer integral technique and is used to predict eight of the ERCOFT
AC test cases and measurements of Gostelow and co-workers. The model is dem
onstrated to predict the development of the boundary layer through transiti
on reasonably accurate for all the test cases. The sensitivity of start of
transition to the turbulent length scale at low freestream turbulence level
s is also demonstrated. The model is also able to predict the evolution of
measured intermittency more accurately than the Narasimha empirical correla
tion. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.