The potential impacts of the use of Southern Oscillation information on the Texas aggregate sorghum production

Economic decision models incorporating biophysical simulation models are us ed to examine the impact of the use of Southern Oscillation (SO) informatio n on sorghum production in Texas. Production for 18 sites is aggregated to examine the impact of the use of SO information on the aggregate supply cur ve and other production and economic variables. Two information scenarios a re examined. For all expected prices, the use of SO information increased p roducers' net returns over the scenario in which SO information is not used . Depending on price, the expected Texas aggregate sorghum supply curve usi ng SO information shifted both left and right of the without SO information supply curve. Changes in nitrogen use based on the SO information is a maj or factor causing the shift in the supply curves. Further, the use of SO in formation decreased aggregate expected costs per metric ton of production. Changes associated with the use of SO information can be summarized as foll ows: the use of SO information provides producers a method to use inputs mo re efficiently. This more efficient use has implications for both the envir onment and for the agricultural sector.