Fracture risk in the US Medicare population

Using data from the 5% U.S. Medicare sample, we estimated the actuarial (li fe table) risk that a person aged 65 will fracture the upper or lower limbs or the pelvis, by age 75, 80, 85, and 90, taking into account the chance o f dying in the interval. The actuarial risk of a 65-year old white woman su staining a fracture by age 90 is 16% for the hip, 9% for distal forearm, 5% for proximal humerus, and 4% for ankle. Black women and white men have sub stantially lower risks, and the risks for black men are very low. Although hip fractures pose the single greatest risk, the risk of all other fracture s combined is greater. White women have particularly high risks for all fra ctures, because of their longevity as well as their high fracture rates. It is important to adjust for the probability of dying when estimating risks in an elderly population. J CLIN EPIDEMIOL 52;3:243-249, 1999. (C) 1999 Els evier Science Inc.