Short-term debris risk to large satellite constellations

A debris collision hazard analysis is carried out on a large 800-satellite constellation, representative of the initial Teledesic configuration, using the Space Debris Simulation (SDS) software, Usage of the software focuses on the short- to medium-term effects of explosive and collision-induced bre akups. Two potentially constellation-threatening scenarios are considered: 1) constellation member fragmentation and 2) constellation launch-vehicle b reakup. The constellation collision probability and the debris impact-energ y to target-mass ratio are used as indicators of the severity of the risk p osed to the constellation, It is found that, in the case investigated, the collisional risk to the constellation is low in the short term. Of the scen arios examined, it is the collision-induced breakup of a constellation sate llite that poses the greatest danger, in terms of the possibility of a seco ndary fragmentation, The SDS software is proven to be a useful tool in the analysis of the short-term, relative threat posed by debris impact to large constellation systems.