Pj. White et Gp. Garnett, Use of antiviral treatment and prophylaxis is unlikely to have a major impact on the prevalence of herpes simplex virus type 2, SEX TRANS I, 75(1), 1999, pp. 49-54
Background: Genital infection with herpes simplex virus (HSV) is common and
can cause severe morbidity, over many years in some cases. Aciclovir provi
des suppressive therapy but there is debate over the effects of its use on
the spread of infection.
Objectives: To explore the influence of the natural history of genital HSV
and the impact of antiviral therapy.
Methods: A simple mathematical model of HSV-2 transmission dynamics was dev
eloped, and parameter values estimated from published data.
Results: The relative durations of the risk of transmitting HSV-2 and the d
uration of therapy generate a non-linear relation between the duration of a
ntiviral therapy and the reduction in prevalence of infection. If there is
a wide distribution of risk of HSV-2 transmission over the course of an inf
ection then practicable aciclovir use is unlikely to have any great impact
on disease transmission dynamics.
Conclusions: There are still many uncertainties in the transmission dynamic
s of HSV-2. In particular, infectiousness over the course of an infection r
equires more detailed exploration. To have a significant impact on the prev
alence of HSV-2 aciclovir use would have to be widespread and for a long du
ration.