Can successors succeed? Assessing the odds for prime ministerial re-election in old commonwealth countries since 1945

This article focuses on prime ministers who reached office by succeeding an other prime minister from the same party rather than by winning an election in their own right. Successors are found to be as numerous as those who wo n office through a general election. The odds are currently against success ors. Successors who have the highest rate of success are those who waited b etween one and 12 months before calling an election. Defeated successors ar e likely to quit as party leaders afterwards. The findings are similar amon g jurisdictions, except for the Australian states, where successors have ra rely been successful in recent decades.