Five independent studies show that polarity sequence is associated with pro
gnosis in bipolar I disorder. Episodes in which major depression precedes m
ania (DMI) lead to higher morbidity than biphasic episodes which begin with
mania (MDI). However, little is known about the prognostic significance of
polarity sequence for long-term outcome. This study examined polarity sequ
ence across multiple episodes among 165 bipolar I patients followed prospec
tively for up to 15 years as part of the NIMH Collaborative Study of Depres
sion. Episodes beginning with major depression were significantly longer th
an those beginning with mania for the first three prospectively observed ep
isodes when pooling all episode types-monophasic, biphasic, and polyphasic.
Furthermore, affective polarity at onset for the first prospectively obser
ved episode was associated with polarity at onset for the remaining three e
pisodes. Patients whose first prospectively observed episode began with dep
ression had higher overall morbidity during the entire follow-up period.