In this article, we examine how model selection in neural networks can be g
uided by statistical procedures such as hypothesis tests, information crite
ria and cross validation. The application of these methods in neural networ
k models is discussed, paying attention especially to the identification pr
oblems encountered. We then propose five specification strategies based on
different statistical procedures and compare them in a simulation study. As
the results of the study are promising, it is suggested that a statistical
analysis should become an integral part of neural network modeling. (C) 19
99 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.