Prediction of vegetation succession in human-disturbed habitats using an expert system

Detailed information, both quantitative and observational, on the course of vegetation succession in various human-disturbed habitats in Central Europ e was used to construct an expert system named SUCCESS. Using the system, i t is possible to predict tentatively the sequence of seral stages and domin ant species exchange in successional seres initiated on bare ground and las ting up to 50 years. Simple information on geographical position, type of s ubstratum, relief, moisture, nutrient content, character of surrounding veg etation, and size of the disturbed area is taken into consideration to pred ict site-specific succession in the particular habitats. The expert system is supposed to help landscape managers, nature conservationists, and enviro nmental impact assessment experts in decisionmaking procedures to take into account the development of vegetation in man-made sites. Moreover, it also summarizes scientific information on the pattern of vegetation change in h uman-disturbed habitats in the geographical area considered.