The limits of neorealism: understanding security in Central Asia

This paper specifies the conditions for conflict in Central Asia. Given Rus sian preponderance this should be an easy case for neorealism. But we demon strate that the consequences of Russia's superior power will depend on the nature of its regime and domestic stability in Central Asia. The type of na tionalism, the robustness of political institutions, and the success or fai lure of economic reform will be critical conditions for Central Asian stabi lity. The paper also evaluates the prospects for conflict resolution and pr evention.