Objective: To examine the association between heart rate and 12-year incide
nce rates of total and cardiovascular death in a cohort of elderly subjects
stratified by sex.
Subjects and Methods: The study was carried out in 763 white men and 1175 w
omen aged 65 years or older who were participating in the Cardiovascular St
udy in the Elderly. Subjects were divided into quintiles of heart rate; the
top quintile comprised those with a heart rate of greater than 80/min and
the bottom quintile, those with a heart rate of less than 64/min.
Results: In the men, the number of deaths from cardiovascular causes was si
gnificantly increased in those in the top quintile of heart rate (crude rel
ative risk, 1.55) but decreased in those in the bottom quintile (crude rela
tive risk, 0.65). Similar relationships were found in the women, but the as
sociations did not reach statistical significance (all-cause, P =.11; cardi
ovascular, P =.15). After adjustment for baseline age, body mass index, hyp
ertension, diabetes mellitus, angina or previous myocardial infarction (cor
onary heart disease), regular medication, lipid levels, smoking, alcohol in
take, forced expiratory volume in 1 second, and other confounders, the rela
tive risk for cardiovascular death in the men was 1.38 (95% confidence inte
rval, 0.94-2.03) for the subjects in the top quintile of heart rate and 0.8
2 (95% confidence interval, 0.52-1.28) for those in the bottom quintile. In
the Cox analysis, predictors of time to cardiovascular death were heart ra
te (P<.001), age (P<.001), coronary heart disease (P<.001), clinical heart
failure (P=.001), diabetes mellitus (P=.001), hypertension (P=.02), and tri
glyceride levels (P=.04), whereas total (P =.20) and high-density lipoprote
in-cholesterol (P =.21) levels and smoking (P =.74) were found to be nonsig
nificant by the model. The heart rate-cardiovascular death association held
true when subjects who died in 2 years after enrollment were excluded (P =
.008).
Conclusions: An elevated heart rate may be a strong predictor of cardiovasc
ular death in elderly men. Conversely, a low heart rate is related to a bet
ter outcome in these subjects.