Global health indicators as predictors of mortality among the elderly - A 6-year prospective study

The objective of this prospective study was to determine if certain global health indicators can predict the occurrence of mortality in a representati ve sample of the elderly in three ge strata, after adjusting for sex. The s ample, matched for age and sex, comprised 559 subjects. Structured intervie ws based on the OARS and SMAF were used to assess health. The cumulative nu mber of deaths per month was then recorded over a six-year period. Cox's mu ltivariate model was used to express the relative mortality risk among thes e three age cohorts using the overall health indicators as predictors. The results indicate that these indicators are significant predictors of mortal ity only in the 65-72 age group. Several hypotheses are presented to explai n this phenomenon: psychological adjustment to illness, internalization of prevailing social norms, or a cohort and survival effect.