Demographic transition, stagnation, and demoeconomic cycles in a model forthe less developed economy

The paper considers a dynamic macroeconomic model for a developing economy. Population varies endogenously according to the theory of demographic tran sition. It is shown under which circumstances this economy converges either to a steady-state growth path or to a low-level equilibrium. The latter ma y be a Malthusian stationary steady-state or a limit cycle. Strong fluctuat ions in the demoeconomic variables, which can be observed for some developi ng countries, can be explained as endogenous oscillations. Positive exogeno us shocks may cause an escape from the equilibrium trap and initiate a proc ess of demographic transition if they are properly timed and of sufficient duration.