HOW INSECURE IS PACIFIC ASIA

This article rejects extreme views on the Pacific Asian security situa tion that posit either smooth progress towards a prosperous and secure peace or accelerating tensions and arms races. It identifies four key conditions essential for the construction of durable regional securit y: pluralist political systems; growing interdependence; the creation of regional society; and a robust balance of power. None of these cond itions is sufficient on its own: the tensions that can arise from econ omic interdependence and the dangers of the early stages of progress t owards a pluralist polity are emphasized. Nevertheless, despite the li mited effectiveness hitherto of formal pan-regional security organizat ions, there are positive signs of an emerging regional balance of powe r.