THE ATTRITION OF VOLUNTEERS

We apply a flexible hazard-rate model to analyze the attrition rate of volunteers with the Belgian Red Cross. Our modeling framework handles right-censored and left-filtered observations, incorporates covariate s, makes an adjustment for unobserved heterogeneity and estimates the baseline hazard non-parametrically. Two of our findings are of serious concern to the Red Cross administrators. First, the expected length o f stay becomes smaller for the more recent entrants. Second, the condi tional quitting probability does not decrease, but rather increases, w ith the volunteer's length of service. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V.