THE EFFECT OF PUBLIC POLICIES ON RECENT SWEDISH FERTILITY BEHAVIOR

In the literature the recent upsurge in period birth rates is seen as evidence of a pronatalist effect of Sweden's extensive social insuranc e programs. Yet, these explanations can not account for the downturn i n birth rates in the 1970s, the delay in childbearing, and the constan cy of cohort birth rates which characterize recent Swedish fertility b ehavior, To summarize,the effect of Sweden's economic and policy envir onment on the observed fertility patterns, I use a neoclassical econom ic framework to develop the shadow price of fertility. Although strong simplifying assumptions are imposed, the estimated price series exhib it a negative relationship with period fertility rates and the change in the estimated relative prices of fertility over the life cycle lend modest support for the delayed childbearing.