IS THE GEOEFFECTIVENESS OF THE 6 JANUARY 1997 CME PREDICTABLE FROM SOLAR OBSERVATIONS

We present a prediction scheme for specifying the duration and maximum strength of the southward IMF within a magnetic cloud from observatio ns of the disappearing filament associated with the coronal mass eject ion and the photospheric magnetic field made near the filament disappe aring. Using this scheme we were able to predict that the Earth direct ed 6 January 1997 coronal mass ejection would be geoeffective. We expe cted that the southward IMF interval would have a maximum strength of -13 +/- 5 nT and a duration of 14 +/- 5 hours. This compares favorably with the WIND observations of -15 nT and 13 hours.