PREDICTORS OF MOBILITY DECLINE - THE HONG-KONG OLD-OLD STUDY

Background. Old age is often accompanied by functional decline and los s of autonomy. This longitudinal study examines the factors associated with mobility decline among a Chinese elderly cohort aged 70 years an d above. Methods. Analyses were carried out on data collected from 1,4 83 elderly subjects who were functionally mobile at baseline and survi ved the 18-month follow-up period. The outcome variable ''mobility dec line'' was measured using the Barthel Activities of Daily Living Scale , which accesses subjects' ability to be independent in walking a dist ance of 50 meters and/or moving up and downstairs during the 18-month follow-up interview. Results. Multivariate backward stepwise logistic regression analysis revealed that the following baseline characteristi cs were independently associated with mobility decline during the foll ow-up period: increasing age (OR 1.4, 95% CI 1.2-1.6 for every 5-year increase in age), no formal level of education (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.0-3.9 ), no current practice of exercise (OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.4-3.1), symptoms of palpitation (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.1-2.8), body mass index [weight (kg)/ height (m)(2)] below 20 (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.1-2.6), and slow gait veloci ty (OR 1.12, 95% CI 1.09-1.16 per second increase in gait time). There was also significant association between the experience of Calls duri ng follow-up and mobility decline (OR = 29, 95% CI=1.9-4.5). Conclusio n. Low body weight, lack of exercise, and falls during the follow-up p eriod might serve as markers as to which subjects are at risk for mobi lity decline.