THE LEARNING-CURVES UNDERLYING CONVERGENCE

The convergence of telecommunications and computing technologies and s ervices into a new medium offering integrated services through digital networks was predicted in the 1970s and is beginning to have major so cial and commercial impacts in the 1990s. This article analyzes the te chnological infrastructure of convergence to an information highway, t racing the origins of the concept, the false starts, the growth and or igins of the Internet and World Wide Web, convergence as a substitutio n process, and the learning curves of the technologies involved. A num ber of substitution processes underlying convergence are identified: e lectronic for mechanical devices, digital for analog devices, and gene ral-purpose programmable devices for special-purpose devices. A model of convegence in terms of a tiered infrastructure of learning curves i n information technology is proposed and used to explain the past and forecast the future. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc.