STAGED ESTIMATION OF INTERNATIONAL DIFFUSION-MODELS - AN APPLICATION TO GLOBAL CELLULAR TELEPHONE ADOPTION

This article proposes a method that overcomes a number of problems ass ociated with new product diffusion models noted in the marketing liter ature. We illustrate the methodology in the context of better understa nding global variances in new product adoption. Building on existing d iffusion models and sample matching principles from international cons umer research, we suggest a ''staged estimation procedure.'' The proce dure provides both sensible and robust estimates and remains usable ev en if the diffusion process is in its earliest stage in most or all co untries. In an empirical illustration covering 184 countries on five c ontinents, we use cellular diffusion data to gain insights on how exog enous/endogenous country characteristics affect country-level diffusio n patterns. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc.