ALCOHOL-CONSUMPTION DEBUT - PREDICTORS AND CONSEQUENCES

Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate the predictors of the timing of alcohol consumption debut and to analyze possible associ ations between the timing of debut and later alcohol consumption and p ossible alcohol-related problems. Method: A population sample of 465 a dolescents (249 girls) from the greater Oslo area was followed up thro ugh five data collections over a 6-year span. By means of generalized structural equation modeling-accommodating survival variables-parental and friends' influences on debut age were estimated. Further, the con sequences of the age of debut on subsequent alcohol consumption and al cohol problems were studied, taking other influences into consideratio n. In particular, possible gender differences were investigated. Resul ts: The mean age for alcohol consumption debut was 14.8 years. The age of alcohol debut had an independent effect on both future alcohol con sumption and the development of alcohol-related problems, and the effe cts were invariant across sex. According to the estimated model, a 10% delay in debut age will lead to a 35% decrease in subsequent expected alcohol consumption. Conclusions: Alcohol debut was an excellent pred ictor of subsequent alcohol consumption and alcohol problems. The stro ng preventive implication is that interventions should be implemented in order to postpone alcohol debut age. A weak implication is that pre ventive measures should be implemented for the early onset drinkers. F urther, it seems to be important to give high priority to more thoroug h studies on the exact nature of the relationships we have investigate d here.