A STOCHASTIC-MODEL OF THE HIV EPIDEMIC FOR HETEROSEXUAL TRANSMISSION INVOLVING MARRIED-COUPLES AND PROSTITUTES - II - THE CHAIN MULTINOMIALMODEL OF THE HIV EPIDEMIC

This is a follow-up paper of Tan and Zhu [1] in which we have consider ed a large population consisting of single males, single females, marr ied couples, and prostitutes. For assessing effects of risk factors on the HIV epidemic by heterosexual transmission and the role of prostit utes in this paper, we have developed chain multinomial models for the HIV epidemic in these populations. Through Monte Carlo studies, we ha ve shown that prostitutes form a stepping stone for the HIV epidemic b y heterosexual transmission. Among the risk factors affecting HIV prev alence, our numerical results have indicated that the frequency of con dom use is the most important factor followed by the number of sexual partners per unit time. Thus, promoting condom use among prostitutes m ay serve as a major avenue to control the spread of HIV through hetero sexual transmission.