SETTING PRIORITIES FOR ADAPTING TO CLIMATE-CHANGE

It is not likely that efforts to control greenhouse gas emissions will completely eliminate the risk of climate change, Thus, policymakers w ill eventually have to address adaptation to the effects of climate ch ange, Given the uncertainties about the timing, direction, and magnitu de of regional climate change, it might seem preferable to postpone ad aptive measures until after climate changes, Yet, this may not produce satisfactory results if climate change impacts are irreversible or ca tastrophic, long-lived resource systems are affected, or current trend s make adaptation less likely to succeed in the future, In these cases , policy changes in anticipation of climate change may be justified, A nticipatory climate change measures need to be flexible-they should ab sorb impacts or enable a system to quickly recovery under a wide varie ty of climate situations. In addition, they should be economically eff icient, that is their benefits should exceed their costs, Although man y measures are appropriate anticipatory measures, not all of them need to be implemented now, Those most in need of immediate implementation should meet at least one of the following criteria: (1) address irrev ersible or costly impacts; (2) be urgent, i.e. reverse trends that mak e adoption of the measure more difficult over time; or (3) address lon g-term decisions, such as building infrastructure, A method is propose d for natural resource policymakers to use in analyzing the need for a nticipatory adaptation policies and the effectiveness of policy option s to anticipate climate change. This method enables policy makers to i dentify those anticipatory policies most in need of immediate implemen tation. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd, All rights reserved.