Pa. Samuelson, HOW BEST TO FLIP-FLOP IF YOU MUST - INTEGER DYNAMIC-STOCHASTIC PROGRAMMING FOR EITHER-OR, Journal of risk and uncertainty, 15(3), 1997, pp. 183-190
Standard portfolio analysis presumes one can blend different securitie
s continuously. When one must choose all of one portfolio or all of an
other, we are in stochastic digital programming: either-or, zero-or-on
e choice. The algorithm for doing this optimally is shown to be simple
r than in real variable maximizing, a switch from the usual extra comp
lexities of digital programming. The Bellman multi-period dynamic prog
ramming is shown, paradoxically, to make it possible for a risk-averse
investor to want sometimes to embrace an unfair gamble. The superiori
ty of within-time diversification over across-time diversification car
ries over to this flip-flop case.