EVALUATION OF A SELF-REPORT SCREENING INSTRUMENT TO PREDICT FRAILTY OUTCOMES IN AGING POPULATIONS

The purpose of this study is to investigate the utility of a self-repo rt screening instrument, the Health Status Form (HSF), to predict elde rly members at risk of frailty in the subsequent year. The predictive ability of self-report HSF data was also compared to the predictive ab ility of inpatient discharges and pharmacy dispensings from administra tive utilization databases. Four HSF variables best predicted elderly members at risk of frailty: (a) age, (b) indicating that health condit ions interfered with daily activities, (c) needing or receiving assist ance from another person for bathing, and (d) needing or receiving ass istance from another person for taking medications. The predictive mod el yielded sensitivity 50.7%, specificity 97.8%, and correctly classif ied 90.9% of the population. Self-report population-based screening is a reliable method for predicting elderly members at risk of frailty i n the coming year. Further studies should test a new brief instrument composed of portions of validated measures as a stand alone screener t o select frail members for care management purposes.