THE FUTURE OF SOLID-STATE ELECTRONICS

For more than thirty years, the capability of the integrated circuit ( IC)-whether it is memory size, processor speed, or cost per transistor -has increased at an exponential rate. This capability increase was ac hieved through a steady stream of technical innovations in physical sc iences, design techniques, and manufacturing methods. However, serious challenges to continued scaling, such as the limits of optical lithog raphy and the complexity of wiring, loom on the horizon. This paper ex plores the direction in which IC technology is headed, highlights pote ntial roadblocks and possible solutions, and discusses some of the phy sical considerations that could determine the ultimate limits of integ ration.