PREDICTION IN SOME POISSON ERRORS-IN-VARIABLES MODELS

Predictive distributions are developed and illustrated for prediction in some Poisson errors in variables models. Two different situations i n which multiplicative treatment effects are appropriate are considere d within the context of predicting counts of road accidents. Hierarchi cal prior structures are investigated, and numerical integration and G ibbs sampling routines are used to derive the predictive and posterior probabilities. Examples of analyses are provided with data from road accidents in Sweden.