F. Lafontaine et Kl. Shaw, FRANCHISING GROWTH AND FRANCHISOR ENTRY AND EXIT IN THE US MARKET - MYTH AND REALITY, Journal of business venturing, 13(2), 1998, pp. 95-112
Franchising has been and continues to be a very popular way to do busi
ness for a number of retailers and service businesses. However, the ty
pe of franchising ch ising that has been growing the most, namely busi
ness-format franchising, has not grown at the kind of phenomenal rates
that the trade press often suggests. Since the Department of Commerce
(DOC) canceled its publication Franchising in the Economy, we no long
er have access to census-type data on franchising in the U.S. However,
looking at the period during which the DOC did publish these darn, on
e finds that the number of business-format franchisors is highly corre
lated with the number of units in these chains. Thus, we use data from
recent issues of various franchisor directories to assess the number
of franchisors in the U.S., and infer from this how business-format fr
anchising has grown in the U.S. We find that business-format franchisi
ng has been growing over the last decade at a rate that is, at best, c
ommensurate with the growth of the economy as a whole. We believe that
the confusion about the extent of growth in franchising arises, in pa
rt, from the fact that many new firms enter into franchising each year
, leaning to the notion that this way of doing business is growing tre
mendously. However we show that many firms also exit from franchising
each year, for a net growth rate much below the entry rate. This paper
shows that franchising is not a panacea for entrepreneurs, whether fr
anchisor or franchisee. From the franchisor's viewpoint, the high rate
of exits suggests that many firms fail despite franchising, and many
others choose to stop franchising after trying it for a few years. Cle
arly, these firms have found that franchising is not right for them. F
urthermore, the results show that the characteristics of the chain at
the time it becomes involved in franchising, as described in the main
franchisor directories-such as the royalty rate, the advertising fee,
the franchise fee, the amount of capital required and the sector of op
eration-have little capacity to explain ''survival.'' The main variabl
e that affects ''survival'' among those that are typically reported in
franchisor listings is the number of years that the franchisor has be
en in business before starting to franchise. Hence our results suggest
this is one dimension in which franchisors can make decisions that af
fect the probability that they will be successful in franchising. Alth
ough we are unable to explain most of the variance in outcome, the res
ults mostly imply that other, less easily observed or quantified chara
cteristics of the chain and the franchisor, such as maybe the ''innova
tiveness'' of the product, the amount of support provided to franchise
es, the financial backing of the franchisor, etc., likely influence ''
success'' the most, and thus, are worth investigating further. From th
e perspective of franchisees, the amount of exit found here suggests t
hat in the majority of systems, franchisees cannot expect that their f
ranchisor will be around for the whole duration of their contract-whic
h averages about 15 years according to the Department of Commerce. Thi
s does not mean that the majority of franchised businesses will find t
hemselves in an ''exiting'' system-a small minority of very well-estab
lished franchisors accounts for the majority of franchised businesses,
and these are likely to remain successful for years to come. Belt ent
repreneurs buying franchises from less established systems are likely
to face franchisor exit, either failure or departure. This paper confi
rms that franchisees should thoroughly investigate the franchise syste
m they want to invest in, going beyond the information about royalty r
ates, advertising rates, rankings, etc., found in franchisor directori
es, and toward more product, market, and other less easily accessible
information about the chain. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc.