FOREST-FIRE AS A MODEL FOR THE DYNAMICS OF DISEASE EPIDEMICS

We review recent studies on the modelling of epidemic processes using individual-based lattice epidemic models. Originally introduced to inv estigate the emergence of spatio-temporal organisation in non-linear d ynamical systems they are usually termed ''forest-fire'' models. Howev er, their interpretation as a representation of communicable disease s pread is readily apparent and we show how, by analysing individual epi demic outbreaks, it is possible to gain insight into the spread of mea sles in certain small, largely susceptible, island populations before the era of mass-vaccination. (C) 1997 The Franklin Institute. Publishe d by Elsevier Science Ltd.