SHORT AND LONG-RUN ELASTICITIES IN US RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY DEMAND - A COINTEGRATION APPROACH

Co-integration techniques show promise in the analysis of short-and lo ng-run effects of economic variables og energy use. We use these techn iques to develop an error correction model of annual US residential el ectricity demand. We construct equipment stock indices and estimate th e model for 1949-1993. Our analysis suggests a structural shift in con sumption during the 1960s. We discuss reasons for this shift, report t he short-and long-run elasticities, provide forecasts for 1994-1995, a nd compare the model's forecasts with other published forecasts. (C) 1 997 Elsevier Science B.V.