IS THERE PERSISTENCE IN THE GROWTH OF MANUFACTURED EXPORTS - EVIDENCEFROM NEWLY INDUSTRIALIZING COUNTRIES

Applying cointegration techniques in a panel data setting, we document persistent growth of manufactured exports from certain developing cou ntries. To complement the investigation of persistence (measured by th e country 'fixed-effects'), we analyze asymmetries in income elasticit ies: for all developing countries, the decline in exports with world i ncome contraction is sharper than is the rise on the upswing; the decl ine is, however, especially pronounced for countries with low or negat ive persistence. The results are consistent with long-term buyer-suppl ier relationships that create 'insiders' and 'outsiders' in manufactur ed goods trading. Exports are also influenced by the transactional inf rastructure (proxied by telecommunications penetration). (C) 1997 Else vier Science B.V.