DISPERSED SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT - HONG-KONG NEW CITY FORM AND ITS ECONOMIC-IMPLICATIONS AFTER 1997

The shift of Dong Kong's economic base from manufacturing to services requires a stronger emphasis on a dispersed spatial development strate gy away from the central urban area surrounding the inner harbor and a re-orientation toward the Pearl River Delta region of China in Dong K ong's port development after 1997, To compete successfully with its ne ighbors in the Asia Pacific region and with Chinese counterparts such as Shanghai and Guangzhou, Dong Kong has to anticipate the impact of t he new informational technologies on urban development, which has brou ght about a multinucleation process for cost-minimization as has been occurring in the US. This paper examines Dong Kong's evolving ecologic al structure and the importance of its Port and Development (PAD) Stra tegy in shaping a new outer port area oriented toward the Pearl River Delta of China and a decentralization of economic activities away from the inner port area after 1997, An extended shift-share analysis and spatial development simulation have presented four scenarios of develo pment. The decentralization scenario with emphasis on the development of self-contained new towns is the preferred choice if Dong Kong is to improve its space of flows. With the construction of the new airport in Chek Lap Kok in Lantau Island, Dong Kong is well prepared to mainta in its importance as one of the world's financial and transshipment ce nter after the sovereignty transfer of 1997. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.