A DECISION-MAKING MODEL - ITS STRUCTURE AND FORM

I explain the logic and real-time track record of the expected utility model used for forecasting the outcome and dynamics of political choi ces. The model represents an example of applied modeling. It is a tool designed for practical application. As such, some sacrifices in theor etical or analytic purity are made to gain empirical leverage. At the same time, the model remains faithful to the rational choice perspecti ve that suggests that decision makers do what they believe is in their best interest. Decision makers are modeled as individuals with bounde d rationality, who are not able to look ahead over an unbounded time h orizon, but instead see only one move ahead of their current choice. F urthermore, while they update information, they do so crudely. I also attempt to explain limitations of the model and areas for further impr ovement.